The 50 most recent market catalysts affecting $TLT, each scored for sentiment and estimated stock impact. Sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and financial news, analysed automatically as they are published.
Sep 25, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 85
Bond Market Warning Grows; Pay Attention To Japan; Oil Hopium Fades
The core of this filing is a warning about the bond market, driven by weak Treasury auction results and the potential for Japan to sell U.S. Treasuries to protect the yen. This wou…
Sep 24, 2026
Market Technicals
Bearish
Impact 75
QUICK SPARK: The TLT ETF Tracking Long Duration Bonds Hits New Record Low
The TLT ETF, which tracks long-duration U.S. Treasury bonds, hit a new record low of $79.71, reflecting a significant sell-off in the bond market. This event is driven by the 10-ye…
Sep 24, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bullish
Impact 85
10-Year Yields Hit 19-Year Highs Due to ‘Booming' Economy, Yardeni Says
The filing reveals that the 10-year Treasury yield has hit a 19-year high, driven by a surprisingly strong U.S. economy, as articulated by Ed Yardeni. This matters because while a …
Sep 22, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bullish
Impact 65
NY Fed's Perli Says Fed's Reserve Management Purchases Are Not On Pre-Set Course; Central Clearing Of Fed Repo Operations Would Have Benefits; Monetary Policy Toolkit Has Been Working Very Well; Fed's Reserve Forecasting Process Is Robust
Lorie Logan, a key figure at the NY Fed, clarified that the Fed's reserve management purchases are not on a pre-set course, meaning the central bank retains flexibility in managing…
Sep 22, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 65
Fed's Barkin Says Fed Is Highly Attentive To Financial Conditions, But Can't Assume Markets Will Keep Rates At A Level Needed To Cool Inflation
The provided 'filing content' is a URL to a CFA Society event featuring Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, not an SEC 8-K. Therefore, the headline provided in the prompt is the …
Sep 22, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 85
‘The Sell Button Won’t Work’: Why Rate Hikes No Longer Save Debt Markets
Macro strategists Luke Gormen and Lyn Alden contend that the U.S. has entered a period of 'fiscal dominance,' where the government's interest expense, including entitlements, now s…
Sep 21, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 85
Fed’s Goolsbee Sounds the Alarm on Inflation: October Hike Odds Stay Above 50%
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee's remarks signal a shift in the Federal Reserve's perspective on inflation, moving away from the 'transitory' narrative for supply shocks. His…
Sep 20, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 85
Kashkari Said Labor Market Is Quite Robust; Bond Market Is Treasury’s Responsibility
Kashkari's remarks signal the Fed's continued focus on combating inflation, even if it means maintaining higher interest rates for longer. A 'robust' labor market provides the Fed …
Sep 17, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 85
Fed Rate Hikes Are Supposed to Hurt Bonds: This One Is Doing the Opposite
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates, a move typically expected to hurt bonds by increasing yields. However, the bond market rallied, with yields falling across the curve. Thi…
Sep 16, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 55
President Trump Posts "Interest Rates in the U.S. should be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World - BY FAR. Our Country is BOOMING with new Investment! If we stopped Trading with every country that we have a Deficit with, which is most of them, we would make, at least, $1.5T a year. The word “Deficit” is nothing more than a fancy word for LOSS. We are “carrying” almost every country in the World, and that cannot go on any longer. LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE U.S. AND FAST"
The filing is a social media post from former President Trump, not an official government or corporate announcement. He advocates for drastically lower interest rates (1% or less) …
Sep 16, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bullish
Impact 65
Fed Chair Warsh Says Today We Took A Step Toward Delivering Price Stability; Other Advanced Economies Are Suffering From Price Pressures Too; Economy Has Indeed Strengthened; Inflation Is The Problem; Price Stability Is Foundational To Growth, Today We Took A Step In Delivering It; See 3 Reasons Bond Yields Have Risen, First Is Economic Strength, Second Is Competition For Capital; Surge In CapEx Is Real, Third Is Geopolitics; Hot Spots Around The World Are Driving That Activity
The filing provides a link to a speech by former Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, where he outlines his views on inflation, economic strength, and the factors driving bond yields. This is si…
Sep 16, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bullish
Impact 95
Fed Chair Warsh Says FOMC Decided To Raise Rates By Quarter Point; Inflation Remains Elevated; Decision Comes When Economy Appears To Be Strengthening; Key Markers Have Improved In Recent Months; This Committee Will Deliver Price Stability; View That Conditions Are Not Restrictive Was Widely Shared By FOMC; Jobless Rate Remains Low, Openings And Hours Are Increasing; Labor Side Of Fed Remit Is In Good Shape; OUr Predominant Focus Is Inflation
The filing, though just a YouTube link, implies a significant macro event: a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. This decision, driven by elevated inflation and a strengthening eco…
Sep 16, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 95
FOMC: Fed Officials' Median View Of Fed Funds Rate At End-2026 4.1% (Prev 3.8%); Fed Officials' Median View Of Fed Funds Rate At End-2027 4.1% (Prev 3.6%); Fed Officials' Median View Of Fed Funds Rate At End-2028 3.9% (Prev 3.4%); Fed Officials' Median View Of Fed Funds Rate At End-2029 3.6%; Fed Officials' Median View Of Fed Funds Rate In Longer Run 3.2% (Prev 3.1%)
The upward revision of the Fed Funds Rate projections across multiple years, particularly the longer-run rate, signifies a more persistent inflationary outlook or a greater commitm…
Sep 16, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 95
Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement For September 15-16, 2026 (Link In Body)
This 8-K filing announces the release of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement from its September 15-16, 2026 meeting. While the filing itself only p…
Sep 16, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 75
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder Turns Cautious on US Stocks, Warns $40 Trillion Debt Is Becoming a ‘Compounding…Problem’
Rick Rieder, BlackRock's CIO, is sounding an alarm on the US national debt, which he views as a 'compounding problem' exacerbated by Federal Reserve rate hikes. This concern leads …
Sep 16, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 75
Ex-Fed Economist Warns About ‘Inflation Trap’ As Central Bank Prepares to Vote
This filing details former Fed economist Marvin Barth's contrarian view on the US debt situation and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. He argues that the focus on nominal debt…
Sep 15, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 65
U.S. Treasury's Bessent Says At Deficit-To-GDP Ratio Of 3%, We Can Start To Pay Down Debt; We Would Have Continued Fiscal Contraction This Year If Not For Tariff Redfunds
The filing is a link to a YouTube video where a U.S. Treasury official, Bessent, discusses the government's fiscal policy. Bessent indicates that achieving a 3% deficit-to-GDP rati…
Sep 15, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 85
Fed Hike Odds Hit 93%: 3 Things That Could Really Surprise Markets Wednesday
The market has largely priced in a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike, making the hike itself less of a surprise. The critical factors for market movement will be the Fed's forward guida…
Sep 14, 2026
Market Technicals
Bearish
Impact 85
QUICK SPARK: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Marks All-Time Low
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) hitting an all-time low signifies a major shift in the bond market, specifically for long-duration assets. This event is a direct conse…
Sep 14, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 75
Think a Fed Pause Is Bullish? The Bond Market Might Hijack Your Portfolio Instead
The filing highlights a critical macro risk: even if the Fed pauses, the bond market could react negatively due to concerns about fiscal dominance and structural weaknesses, partic…
Sep 12, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 95
FOMC Interest Rate Preview: Can the Fed Calm Surging Bond Yields?
The FOMC is set to meet amid strong indications of a rate hike, with investor odds at 80-87%. This expectation is fueled by surprisingly strong August job numbers (162k added, July…
Sep 10, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 85
QUICK SPARK: iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF TLT Hits Lowest Levels Since 2004
The filing highlights TLT's sharp decline to levels not seen since 2004, effectively erasing two decades of gains. This is primarily driven by August producer inflation exceeding e…
Sep 10, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 75
Paul Krugman Warns Why the AI Boom—Not the Trump Administration—Is Driving Surging Bond Rates
This filing highlights Paul Krugman's perspective that the current surge in global bond yields is a 'natural market response' to the significant increase in corporate borrowing for…
Sep 10, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 65
Trump’s $5,000 Promise Carries a $1.23 Trillion Price Tag: Does the Treasury Have the Cash?
Former President Trump's pledge of a $5,000 dividend to every adult U.S. citizen, contingent on a Republican sweep in Congress, carries an estimated price tag of $1.23 trillion. Th…
Sep 10, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 85
Scott Bessent's Treasury Getting a Fight From the Bond Market Despite $6 Billion Buyback: Market Watcher Says Borrowers 'in for a Rude Awakening'
The U.S. Treasury, led by Scott Bessent, attempted to stabilize the bond market by tripling its long-term bond buyback operation to $6 billion. However, this intervention was met w…
Sep 9, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 75
Trump Administration Official Speaking On Fox Business Says Treasury Buyback Increase Is Part Of Ongoing Approach
The 'Treasury buyback increase' indicates a potential shift in government debt management, which can influence bond yields and market liquidity. While not a direct monetary policy …
Sep 9, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 65
US Treasury Announces $6B Maximum Par Amount For September 10 Debt Buyback Operation In 10-To-20-Year Sector
The US Treasury is conducting a debt buyback operation for up to $6 billion in the 10-to-20-year maturity sector. This action is part of the Treasury's ongoing efforts to enhance l…
Sep 9, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 85
Scott Bessent Says ‘I Am the House Now’ and Dares Traders to Bet Against Him — Wall Street Fires Back With ‘Activist Treasury’ Label
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's aggressive statements, claiming an 'asymmetric information' edge and daring traders to bet against him, signal a more interventionist approach to…
Sep 4, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 85
El-Erian Sees More Trouble Ahead for Bonds: ‘Reliable Buyers’ Are Running for the Exit
Mohamed El-Erian's warning highlights a critical shift in the global bond market: the retreat of traditional 'reliable buyers' like China, Japan, and Gulf countries, alongside a re…
Sep 3, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bullish
Impact 75
Fed's Waller Says 'Not Sure A Whole Lot Will Come Out Of' Communications Task Force; Pushback Against Scenario-Based Guidance Last Year Was Strong, Fed Officials Hold 'Very Strong Views' On Communications
Waller's remarks highlight ongoing internal debate within the Federal Reserve about how best to communicate its future policy intentions. The 'strong pushback' against scenario-bas…
Sep 3, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 85
Fed's Waller Says In Reuters Next Interview Fed Needs A Consistent Reaction Function 'Or You Can't Forecast,' Calls It 'Economics 101' And Not 'Weird Advice'; Precise Quantities May Have Imperfections But Qualitatively It's Important
Waller's call for a 'consistent reaction function' from the Fed is significant because it directly addresses market participants' need for predictability in monetary policy. A clea…
Sep 3, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 75
Fed's Waller Says 'What Treasury Does Is Treasury's Business,' Short-Run Interventions 'Don't Do Much' But It's Bessent's Prerogative
Waller's statement clarifies the Fed's stance on Treasury operations, indicating a separation of responsibilities. While not a direct market mover, it reinforces the idea that the …
Sep 3, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 85
Fed's Waller In Reuters Next Interview Says Loss Of Treasury 'Convenience Yield' Is A 'Bad Story' That Raises Yields, Term Premium Also Rising As Investors Uncertain About Dollar's Reserve Currency Status
Fed's Waller highlighting the 'bad story' of lost Treasury 'convenience yield' and rising term premium due to dollar uncertainty is a significant macro development. This implies a …
Sep 3, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 85
Fed's Waller Says In Interview With Reuters Next That 'Can't Keep Running A 3% Structural Deficit,' Yields Going Up Because Of 'Fiscal Stuff' And AI Competition For Capital
Waller's remarks highlight a critical tension between persistent fiscal deficits and the Fed's monetary policy goals. The 'fiscal stuff' driving yields up suggests that the market …
Sep 3, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 65
Peter Schiff Slams Fed's 'Strong Economy' Explanation for Surging Treasury Yields: 'It's Ridiculous'
The filing highlights a significant divergence in opinion between a prominent investor, Peter Schiff, and a key Federal Reserve official, John Williams, regarding the drivers of su…
Sep 2, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bullish
Impact 75
Bond Yields Are Near 5%: New York Fed's Williams Calls That A Sign Of 'Strong Economy'
New York Fed President John Williams stated that rising bond yields, particularly real interest rates, are primarily a symptom of a strong U.S. economy and significant investment d…
Sep 2, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bullish
Impact 85
New York Fed's Williams Says On CNBC That Yields Are Rising On 'Strong Economy And Strong Outlook,' Not Driven By Inflation Outlook; Sees Correlation Between Bond Yields And Middle East Conflict
Williams' statement is significant as it reframes the narrative around rising bond yields, suggesting they are a positive indicator of economic health rather than a purely inflatio…
Sep 1, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 85
Long Bond Again Dips Into Danger Zone—Highest Yield in Japan Since 1996—AI Trade Under Pressure
A significant global bond sell-off is underway, with Japan's 10-year government bond yield hitting a 27-year high of 3%. This is attributed to pressure from the US Treasury Secreta…
Sep 1, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 85
‘The Maradona Theory of Interest Rates’ Is Back: Is Kevin Warsh Playing Wall Street?
Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, by dismantling forward guidance and emphasizing the Fed's commitment to the 2% inflation target without providing a 'map,' has led markets to …
Aug 31, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 65
Bessent Taunts Druckenmiller Over Bond Bet: 'He Doesn't Like Losing Money'
This filing details a public disagreement between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and influential investor Stanley Druckenmiller regarding the Treasury's bond buyback strategy. Be…
Aug 31, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 65
U.S. Treasury Secretary, On CNBC, Says Don't Believe I Can Change Equilibrium Price; Working With Vought On Fiscal Consolidation Package
The U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments on CNBC, as disclosed in this 8-K, highlight a pragmatic view on economic policy, specifically regarding the 'equilibrium price' and ongoing …
Aug 31, 2026
Market Technicals
Bearish
Impact 65
Why Is Wall Street’s Bull Market Holding Up Despite a Treasury Bear Market?
The filing highlights a significant divergence where long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) have been in a bear market for six years, while the stock market (SPY) has experienced one of it…
Aug 28, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 85
Fed Funds Futures Now Price A September Rate Hike As More Likely Than A Hold
The CME FedWatch Tool, a widely followed indicator, now shows fed funds futures pricing in a September rate hike as more likely than a hold. This is a significant development as it…
Aug 28, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 55
Fed's Hammack, On Bloomberg, Interest Rates Are Fed's Most Easily Understood Tool; Goes Into All Fed Meetings With An Open Mind, Low Interest Rate Era May Have Been Unusual
A Federal Reserve official, Hammack, stated on Bloomberg TV that interest rates are the Fed's most easily understood tool and that the recent low interest rate era might have been …
Aug 27, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 75
Citrini Research Bets on a ‘Treasury Twist’: Why the 30-Year Bond Could Rally
Citrini Research anticipates a significant shift in Treasury borrowing strategy, dubbed the 'Treasury twist,' where the Treasury will issue more short-term bills and fewer long-ter…
Aug 26, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 95
USA Core PCE Price Index (YoY) For July xx% Vs 3.3% Est.
The Core PCE Price Index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, making its release a major market event. A higher-than-expected reading would suggest persistent inflat…
Aug 26, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 85
Kevin Warsh Caught Between Fed's Inflation Fight and Scott Bessent’s 'Self-Defeating' Bond Strategy, Says Analyst: 'What He’s Supposed to Do…'
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has expanded bond buybacks to support the long-term Treasury market and reduce borrowing costs, a move seen as conflicting with the Federal Reserve…
Aug 25, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 75
Scott Bessent's Bond Plan 'Won't Work,' Citi Economist Says: US Fiscal Position Is 'Absolutely Out of Control'
The filing highlights a significant macroeconomic debate regarding the effectiveness of the US Treasury's bond buyback program. Nathan Sheets, a highly respected economist and form…
Aug 25, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 75
This Treasury Strategy Could Backfire on Fed — Top Economists Warn Scott Bessent Is Mucking With a Critical Market Signal
The filing highlights a significant macroeconomic concern: the U.S. Treasury's active intervention in the bond market through expanded buybacks, aiming to alter the yield curve. Th…
Aug 24, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Neutral
Impact 65
U.S. Treasury Bessent Says We Are Going To Continue With Our Regular Program Of Treasury Auctions, You Will Be Hearing From Us Again At Beginning Of Next Quarter; We Haven't Bought A Single Bond Yet, Next Operation Is Sept. 9; We Believe A Warning Shot And A Level-Set Is An Appropriate Action
The U.S. Treasury's statement clarifies its ongoing approach to managing government debt. The confirmation of a 'regular program of Treasury auctions' signals stability and predict…
Not financial advice. AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Tradow AI LLC is not a registered investment adviser.