The 14 most recent market catalysts affecting $POL, each scored for sentiment and estimated stock impact. Sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and financial news, analysed automatically as they are published.
Sep 18, 2026
Geopolitical Risk
Bullish
Impact 65
Democratic Sweep Chances Jump 20 Points Since Iran War Began: Crypto Prediction Market Puts Party's Odds at 60%
The filing highlights a notable shift in political prediction markets, with Polymarket indicating a 60% chance of a Democratic sweep in the 2026 midterms, a significant increase fr…
Sep 1, 2026
Corporate Catalyst
Bullish
Impact 75
Trump Jr.-Linked Firm Reportedly Leads Billion-Dollar Funding Round For Polymarket, Pushing Valuation to $21 Billion
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, is reportedly securing a substantial $1 billion funding round, with $300 million coming from 1789 Capital, a firm associated with Donald T…
Aug 11, 2026
Geopolitical Risk
Bearish
Impact 75
Strait of Hormuz Normalization Odds Decline As Trump Demands Compensation From Iran: Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying
The core event is President Trump's demand for compensation from Iran, directly countering Iran's own demands. This tit-for-tat escalation significantly reduces the likelihood of a…
Aug 10, 2026
Geopolitical Risk
Bullish
Impact 75
Mojtaba Khamenei Remains Iran's Supreme Leader By Year End? Crypto Punters Grow Optimistic After Undated Video Surfaces
The filing centers on the health and political stability of Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, following conflicting reports and an undated video. This matters because leader…
Aug 7, 2026
Geopolitical Risk
Bullish
Impact 75
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by This Date? Prediction Market Odds Surge
This filing indicates a significant development in the geopolitical landscape surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. The proposed agreeme…
Aug 3, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 65
Peter Schiff Points to Trump's 'Lowest Ever' Approval Ratings Amid Soaring Inflation, Iran War — Odds Of Impeachment Remain High on Prediction Markets
This filing discusses Peter Schiff's analysis of former President Trump's declining approval ratings, linking them to economic hardships (inflation, gas prices) and the Iran confli…
Jul 27, 2026
Geopolitical Risk
Bearish
Impact 65
Benjamin Netanyahu Says He's Going to New York to 'Fight for the Truth': Crypto Prediction Market Weighs Arrest Odds Amid Mamdani Campaign
The filing centers on Benjamin Netanyahu's upcoming visit to New York City, where he faces an international arrest warrant. While New York City Mayor Mamdani initially threatened e…
Jul 25, 2026
Macro/Central Bank
Bearish
Impact 55
Elizabeth Warren Attacks Trump, Kennedy Jr. for Failing to Contain Cyclospora Outbreak: Prediction Market Bettors See Cases Rising by July End (UPDATED)
This filing highlights a political dispute over public health policy and its potential consequences. Senator Warren's accusation against the Trump administration and RFK Jr. for cu…
Jul 22, 2026
Corporate Catalyst
Bullish
Impact 65
Polymarket and Kalshi Are 'Likely' Underestimating Odds of Crypto Bill Passage Due to Insider Trading Restrictions, Says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
This filing highlights an expert opinion from Fundstrat suggesting that the Clarity Act, a significant crypto bill, has a higher probability of passing than current prediction mark…
Jul 21, 2026
Geopolitical Risk
Bearish
Impact 75
Trump Hits Canada With 50% Tariffs on Wine, Cement — Prediction Market Punters See Odds of Trade Deal Fading
This filing discloses that Donald Trump has implemented new 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods, including wine, cement, and hockey sticks, effective in 30 days. This move is …
Jul 20, 2026
Corporate Catalyst
Neutral
Impact 65
A Mysterious Polymarket Trader Walked Away With $1.35 Million in Hours After One Bold World Cup Wager—and It’s Raising Eyebrows
A new Polymarket user, 'yamal19', placed a single, large bet of $1.95 million on Spain to win the World Cup, netting $1.35 million in profit. This unusual trading pattern, where a …
Jul 16, 2026
Geopolitical Risk
Bullish
Impact 65
US-Iran Peace Talks by Month End? Crypto Prediction Market Odds Rise After Trump Says Iranian Leaders 'Want to Meet'
Cryptocurrency prediction markets, specifically Polyamarket, show a rising probability of US-Iran peace talks by July 31st (25%) and August 31st (50%), up from 20% previously. This…
Jul 15, 2026
Geopolitical Risk
Bearish
Impact 65
Iranian Regime to Collapse in 2026? Crypto Prediction Market Betting on This Outcome Even as Trump Threatens to 'Knock Out' Infrastructure
The filing highlights a significant divergence between political rhetoric and prediction market sentiment regarding the stability of the Iranian regime. Despite former President Tr…
Jul 14, 2026
Geopolitical Risk
Neutral
Impact 75
Trump Threatens to Attack Iran's Mysterious Underground Site Despite 'No Activity'— Crypto Bettors Skeptical Tehran Can Get a Nuke in 2026
This filing discloses former President Trump's threat to attack a mysterious Iranian underground facility, 'Pickaxe Mountain,' which is suspected of being a covert uranium enrichme…
Not financial advice. AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Tradow AI LLC is not a registered investment adviser.