CLSA analyst Bhavtosh Vajpayee asserts that the AI chip shortage will extend until 2030, contrary to expectations of a 2028 peak, due to surging demand and early-stage AI buildout. This prolonged shortage is expected to significantly benefit upstream semiconductor and hardware companies, which currently trade at lower valuation multiples.
CLSA's analyst Bhavtosh Vajpayee challenges the notion of an AI chip peak in 2028, forecasting the shortage to last until 2030. This is significant because it implies sustained high demand and pricing power for semiconductor and hardware companies supplying AI infrastructure. Companies like Nvidia (NVDA) are direct beneficiaries, while major AI developers like Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alibaba (BABA) will continue to drive this demand. The short-term implication is continued strong performance for hardware suppliers, while the long-term opportunity lies in identifying which downstream AI companies will ultimately dominate, though CLSA sees clearer opportunities in hardware for now. Traders should consider the sustained tailwinds for semiconductor and hardware firms.