Goldman Sachs has significantly lowered its Q3 Tesla delivery forecast to 435,000 vehicles, citing weaker sales across key markets. This estimate is notably below both the Visible Alpha consensus and prediction market expectations, suggesting potential downside risk for TSLA if Goldman's forecast proves accurate.
Goldman Sachs has cut its Q3 delivery estimate for Tesla to 435,000, a substantial reduction from its previous 490,000 and below the 456,000 Visible Alpha consensus. This downward revision is driven by observed weaker sales in the U.S., China, and Europe, and the fact that Q2 deliveries benefited from an inventory drawdown. The discrepancy between Goldman's conservative forecast and prediction market expectations (around 480,000) creates a significant short-term tension for TSLA, as a miss on deliveries could negatively impact investor sentiment and the stock price. Traders will be closely watching Q3 delivery numbers for confirmation of either Goldman's bearish outlook or the more optimistic prediction market sentiment.