JPMorgan has significantly lowered its fiscal 2027 earnings per share estimate for Nike, citing headwinds in Greater China, increased promotional activity in North America and EMEA, and rising competition. This downgrade suggests a more challenging growth environment for Nike than previously anticipated by consensus.
JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss reiterated an Underweight rating on Nike, cutting the fiscal 2027 EPS estimate from $1.72 to $1.55. This revision is driven by several factors: a $1 billion annualized revenue headwind from the termination of online sales distribution in Greater China by 2027, aggressive discounting in North America and EMEA due to elevated inventory and weak consumer sentiment, and increasing market fragmentation from 'ankle biter' brands. The report suggests a structural shift in consumer behavior towards lower brand loyalty, posing a durable challenge for Nike's market share. This news is a significant negative for Nike, indicating potential underperformance relative to market expectations in the medium to long term, and could lead to further downward pressure on its stock price.