Mosaic Says Strait Of Hormuz Closure, Kazakhstan Blockade Keep Sulfur Spot Prices Unsustainably High; Sees Global Phosphate Production To Fall Well Short Of Last Year By Up To 30M Tons; Sulfur-Related Supply Challenges, Reduced Chinese Exports Are Expected To Keep Supplies Tight In Many Parts Of The World; While Phosphate, Sulfur Markets Are Quite Volatile, Potash Supply, Demand Picture Much More Balanced; Expects Higher Sulfur Prices Impact In Q3, More Significantly In Q4

This filing indicates that Mosaic expects a significant global phosphate production shortfall of up to 30 million tons due to unsustainably high sulfur spot prices, exacerbated by geopolitical events like the Strait of Hormuz closure and Kazakhstan blockade. This will lead to tight supplies and higher prices for phosphate, impacting agricultural input costs globally.

Mosaic, a major fertilizer producer, is flagging a substantial global phosphate production deficit of up to 30 million tons, driven by soaring sulfur prices. This surge in sulfur costs is attributed to geopolitical disruptions, specifically the Strait of Hormuz closure and the Kazakhstan blockade, which are restricting supply. The company anticipates these sulfur-related challenges and reduced Chinese exports will keep phosphate supplies tight and prices high, with the impact becoming more significant in Q4. This situation presents an opportunity for fertilizer producers like Mosaic, CF Industries, and Nutrien to benefit from higher phosphate prices, while potentially increasing input costs for agricultural companies. The long-term implications depend on the resolution of geopolitical tensions and the stability of sulfur supply chains.